CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-04-15T06:48ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30075/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo to the E/NE, seen in all coronagraphs. The source is an eruption from AR 3636 (located at S21E30 at this time), observed best in SDO AIA 171/193/304 starting around 2024-04-15T05:36Z. ARRIVAL: Sudden increase in B-total from 5nT to 15nT detected by both DSCOVR and ACE at 2024-04-19T04:53Z. Simultaneous sudden increase in density at the start time of arrival, 2024-04-19T04:53Z. A sudden increase in temperature and speed is observed later at 2024-04-19T13:44Z, likely indicating the arrival of a flux rope. Corresponding rotation of B-field components observed in DSCOVR, which was the primary spacecraft at the time. Signature also observed in ACE. A gradual increase to peak value of 18nT was also observed during flux rope arrival. Bz remained predominantly in the negative regime for this arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-04-19T04:53Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-04-18T04:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Issued: 2024 Apr 16 1205 UTC #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# A faint partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data from 06:48 UTC on Apr 15. The CME is directed primarily to the North from the Earth's perspective and is likely associated with a small filament eruption near NOAA AR 3636. Current analysis suggests that this CME may have an Earth directed component, with a predicted arrival time of late on Apr 17 - early on Apr 18. #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium #Lead Time: 64.02 hour(s)
Difference: 24.88 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M Office) on 2024-04-16T12:52Z
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